In just under a month the American people will go to the polls to decide their new Commander and Chief, Donald Trump or Hilary Clinton.
Already though a clear favourite has begun to emerge with Clinton leading in polls across the country. Well almost all the polls, the Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll has had Trump in the lead the whole campaign.
One poll may not seem like much but this one poll could potentially indicate Mr Trump will be accepting the keys to the White House very soon.
You see the LA Daybreak tracking poll isn’t like normal polls. Instead of a traditional poll where people are asked who they’re likely to vote for and leaving it at that, the The Daybreak poll asks people to estimate how likely they are to vote for each of the two major candidates.
The same 450 people are asked each day to value the candidate on a scale of 0 to 100, these estimates are then put together to produce a daily forecast.
This means that someone who values a candidate at 100 per cent vote is given more weight than someone who’s only 25 per cent sure they’re going to vote for a candidate.
They then calculate a ratio of a person’s likelihood of voting for a specific candidate to his or her estimated chance of voting.
While this may be a bit hard to follow (It was hard to write) polling this way helped the paper predict who was going to win the election four years ago and the paper are confident in its accuracy.
It’s true that by asking the same 450 people they’re getting a better understanding of how voters feel about their candidates than other polls because any shift reflects individuals changing their minds rather than a dip in the polls.
While no poll can be one hundred per cent accurate it’s interesting that Trump’s supporters are so enamoured on their candidate despite recent controversies.
Who knows maybe you can’t stump the Trump?