Turns out the PlayStation 5 could be coming a lot sooner than you might have expected (or indeed wanted), at least according to Macquarie Research Analyst Damian Thong.
He argues that the Sony will release the PS5 in the second half of 2018, in order to capitalise on expanding software sales – only recently, we’ve had three excellent exclusives in the form of Horizon Zero Dawn, Nier Automata (Japan only), and Nioh.
Thong predicts Sony’s profits will see a 13% increase in 2018 before reaching an all time high of JPY 565.6 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2019.
He goes on to suggest that the three major contributors to this rise in profits are image sensors, gaming and network services, and fewer write downs.
We see sustained profit growth in Game & Network Services. We forecast OP growth from ¥140bn in FY3/17 to ¥180bn in FY3/18, driven by expanding software sales and profits. A rising digital ratio and a higher mix of first-party titles will help margins – Horizon Zero Dawn, which launched on 28 Feb, looks to have had a good start with a Metacritic score of 88. While we have tempered expectations to account for rivalry with Microsoft/Xbox and PC gaming, we note that the success of PS VR (which has reached 915K units sold) highlights the health of the ecosystem. We expect Sony to launch a >10 TFLOPS ‘PS5’ in 2H18 to secure the installed base.
Personally I don’t buy it, though I will happily admit that an analyst probably knows a hell of a lot more about this stuff than me – guess we’ll have to wait and see.