Amid concerns over a naval assault as part of Russia's invasion, military strategists have explained how Moscow could actually be planning to trap Ukraine's forces elsewhere.
Ukraine is facing the 23rd day of Vladimir Putin's 'special military operation', with air raid sirens blaring and blasts being recorded in Lviv, and at least three people killed in shelling in eastern cities.
Odesa has been a source of threatening speculation, with naval activity spotted in the north Black Sea, seemingly stalking the coast of Ukraine.
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However, military experts believe the presence of warships may be a bluff preceding another attack.
An amphibious assault on the port city could cut off much of Ukraine's trade.
However, a senior US defence department official told Sky News they haven't seen 'imminent signs' of a naval attack on Odesa.
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Instead, another plan may be afoot. According to Sam Cranny-Evans and and Dr Sidharth Kaushal, who wrote a defence and security think tank report for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Russia could be planning a lightning advance from southern Ukraine to link up with other battalions and encircle Volodymyr Zelenskyy's forces.
'The warship shelling of Odesa reported on Thursday and amphibious vessels arriving in the Black Sea in recent day suggests to me that the Russians are trying to make the feint even more believable,' Kaushal told The Telegraph.
The experts believe Russia's military will 'bypass' nearby Mykolaiv and head east to target Ukraine's troops near the so-called people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
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Such a plan would sidestep the capture of major cities, instead focusing on Putin's initial goal of 'demilitarising' the country.
The 'exclusive focus' on the state of Kyiv, Mariupol and other major cities 'may obscure more than it reveals', the report said, with Western strategists suffering 'tunnel vision' as a result.
'There is a second Ukrainian centre of gravity - alluded to by Vladimir Putin in his pledge to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine - the regular Ukrainian army, most of which remains near Donetsk and Luhansk, under the aegis of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO),' the RUSI analysts said.
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'The position of this force [the JFO] is looking increasingly precarious as Russian forces advance to encircle it on three axes.'
Citing the recent movements of several Russian military units, the report expresses concern for Ukrainian troops opposite Donetsk and Luhansk, who 'are at risk of encirclement on the eastern side of Dnieper [river]'.
'Indeed, preparations for an amphibious assault on Odesa may have been a feint, given that the ground forces such an assault could have linked up with appear to be moving north,' the analysts wrote, warning a plan could result in a 'critical moment' for Ukraine.
'The encirclement and destruction of a large part of the country’s regular armed forces could represent a victory condition,' the report added.
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Topics: Ukraine, Russia, World News
