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US Election 2020: Pollsters Who Predicted 2016 Election Result Predict Trump Victory

by : Tim Horner on : 04 Nov 2020 01:30
US Election 2020: Pollsters Who Predicted 2016 Election Result Predict Trump VictoryUS Election 2020: Pollsters Who Predicted 2016 Election Result Predict Trump VictoryPA Images

Even in the year 2020, we’re still feeling the effects of the 2016 election – the one that no one predicted. And yet a few did.

The Trafalgar Group, pollsters from Atlanta, Georgia, correctly predicted Donald Trump’s electoral college victory.

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Not only that, the Trafalgar Group were the only ones to predict Trump taking battleground states Pennsylvania and Michigan, and that he would take North Carolina and Florida – something most other pollsters got wrong in 2016.

Election 2020 BidenElection 2020 BidenPA Images

It’s no secret Trump’s ratings have been in the dumps throughout his presidency, and Biden has seen a lead in the polls since the race to the White House began.

However, the Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly has explained to The Hill something that suggests the incumbent could be keeping his heels kicked up on the desk in the Oval Office.

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He said:

There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest.

PA Images

However the Trafalgar Group’s methods have been called into question.

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Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research, said:

[Trafalgar] doesn’t disclose their ‘proprietary digital methods’ so I can’t really evaluate what they’re doing.

They’re far enough out on a limb that a year from now, we’ll all remember if they were very right or very wrong.

As the polls close, it’s just a matter of time to see whether they’ve called it or not.

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Tim Horner

Tim Horner is a senior sub-editor at UNILAD and not just because he was born in the 1980s. He graduated from University College Falmouth with a BA Journalism degree when the internet still consisted of Ceefax and Teletext and telephones were connected to the land.

Topics: News, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Now, US Election, White House

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The Hill
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