A climate expert has warned that the world’s global temperature is close to reaching a ‘risky’ milestone, following a new study from the UK Met Office.
According to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, there is a 50-50 chance of exceeding the 1.5C threshold for global warming within the next five years.
The study, which was produced with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), also showed a 93 percent chance that the five-year global average global temperature will be higher than the average for the past five years.
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Dr Leon Hermanson from the Met Office, the report’s lead expert, said: "Our latest climate predictions show that continued global temperature rise will continue, with an even chance that one of the years between 2022 and 2026 will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
"A single year of exceedance above 1.5C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5°C could be exceeded for an extended period."
Commenting on the news, one climate expert has warned about the increasing ‘risks’ behind moving closer to the threshold.
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Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told The Independent: “These projections show that we are perilously close to the limit beyond which most experts and governments have concluded that the risks of impacts would become unacceptably high.”
He said that, while there is no evidence that there would be instant disaster across the world when the global temperature reaches the 1.5C milestone, it is likely to leave to even more harm in many countries through severe and frequent extreme events, such as floods and heatwaves.
“Every increment of warming increases risks the world faces, including from passing thresholds in the climate beyond which impacts accelerate or become unstoppable or irreversible,” Ward added.
“This finding should put further pressure on every country, including the UK, to cut emissions much more quickly.”
In a statement, WMO secretary-general Professor Petteri Taalas said: “This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
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And he warned: “The 1.5C figure is not some random statistic; it is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.
“For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise.
“And, alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise, and our weather will become more extreme.”
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