A global intelligence firm has released its predictions for how global politics will change over the next decade, and the outlook isn’t great unless you’re American.
Let’s start with Russia.
Apparently the Russian Federation will be at the root of the ‘greatest crisis of the next decade’ as Moscow loses control of the Federation’s satellite states.
But this will not happen as a result of a violent uprising at least, rather a lack of economic growth and support.
The report says:
It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form. Russia’s failure to transform its energy revenue into a self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. It has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization of the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of resources will also vary dramatically…The economic ties binding the Russian periphery to Moscow will fray.
Elsewhere in Europe, Britain will be one of four splintered states to emerge out of the EU apparently.
The four states will be the British islands, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Scandinavia.
According to Stratfor’s report:
Nationalism has already risen significantly. Compounding this is the Ukrainian crisis and Eastern European countries’ focus on the perceived threat from Russia. Eastern Europe’s concern about Russia creates yet another Europe — four, total, if we separate the United Kingdom and Scandinavia from the rest of Europe. Considered with the rise of Euroskeptic parties on the right and left, the growing delegitimation of mainstream parties and the surging popularity of separatist parties within European countries, the fragmentation and nationalism that we forecast in 2005, and before, is clearly evident.
Somehow, while all of that is going on, America will sustain itself as a superpower and allegedly stay out of the rest of the world’s business…apparently.
Of the USA Stratfor said:
The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world. It has learned what happens to heavy exporters when customers cannot or will not buy their products…he one constant will be the continued and maturing power of the United States.
In Asia, Japan will supposedly emerge as the dominant force on the ocean.
Stratfor are predicting aggressive Japanese influence over shipping routes, but that control will depend on the USA backing off somewhat.
Japan has the resources to build a significantly larger navy and a more substantial naval tradition. In addition, Japan is heavily dependent on imports of raw materials from Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf. Right now it depends on the United States to guarantee access. But given that we are forecasting more cautious U.S. involvement in foreign ventures and that the United States is not dependent on imports, the reliability of the United States is in question. Therefore, the Japanese will increase their naval power in the coming years.
Not too far away from Japan’s ‘growing navy’, China will be thrown into a bit of a crisis.
It is predicted that the communist superpower will see its economic growth decline, and with that it will not be able to distribute wealth across the entire nation. As a result the ruling party will apparently be forced to become more oppressive to tighten its grip on the country.
Beijing’s growing dictatorial tendencies and an anti-corruption campaign, which is actually Beijing’s assertion of its power over all of China, provide an outline of what China would like to see in the next decade. China is following a hybrid path that will centralize political and economic powers, assert Party primacy over the military, and consolidate previously fragmented industries like coal and steel amid the gradual and tepid implementation of market-oriented reforms in state-owned enterprises and in the banking sector. It is highly likely that a dictatorial state coupled with more modest economic expectations will result.
Following China’s economic stagnation there will be a void that will be filled by 16 smaller nations, known as the PC16.
These countries are Mexico, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
International capitalism requires a low-wage, high-growth region for high rewards on risk capital. In the 1880s it was the United States, for example. China was the most recent region, replacing Japan. No one country can replace China, but we have noted 16 countries with a total population of about 1.15 billion people where entry-level manufacturing has gone after leaving China.
So just a few minor tweaks to the face of global politics here and there then.