Who Is Most Likely To Win Game Of Thrones, According To Science

by : Julia Banim on :
Science could help us find out who will win Game of Thrones.HBO

Who will end up sat on the Iron Throne after the final ever season of Game of Thrones? And will it be the person most deserving?

One of the many intriguing factors of the world crafted from the writings of George RR Martin is that there is no clear protagonist, without the obvious heroes and villains which usually populate fantasy narratives.


We have those we want to survive, those who we think will survive, and – of course – we all have our favourites who we will defend passionately until long after winter finally comes around.

Consider, as I have, the underrated merit of Sansa Stark. Sadly, I was unable to persuade friends who have long wanted to see Jon Snow or Daenerys Targaryen rule the turbulent land of Westeros.


Opinion pieces aside, perhaps we can turn to science to see who will ‘win’ this epic and blood-drenched game.


Researchers from the Technical University of Munich have now given scientific predictions as to who is most likely to be still standing – and non-White Walker-ed – after the battles are won and the guts are spilt.

Their findings, which have come from a set of artificial intelligence algorithms, have honestly surprised me a bit. Seriously, I always thought Dany would be a goner by the end.


According to these researchers:


The algorithms developed now by the students predicts that Daenerys Targaryen has the highest chance (99%) of surviving the harrowing GoT world. Her Hand of the King, Tyrion Lannister, also has a promising 97% survival rate.

Survival rates are predicted using longevity analysis – a technique similar to scientific studies that examine the effects of treatments and complications on cancer patients. The full list of characters and their survival chances are available online at got.show.

Savvy GoT fans can get an in-depth look into the main reasons for the algorithm’s predictions. For instance, being born in Winterfell to the House of Stark as well as only being married once seems to increase the chances of Sansa Stark to be eliminated in the upcoming season; her predicted likelihood of death is 73%.

Fans interested in exploring the differences between the plot of the TV show and the story told by the books underlying the TV series, can find a side by side comparison of details about characters, including age, status (dead vs. alive) and longevity prospects.

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Of course, these algorithms are not 100 per cent spot on so please do keep on championing your fave.

Season 8 of Game of Thrones will air in the US on HBO on April 14, and Sky Atlantic early morning April 15 in the UK.


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Julia Banim

Jules studied English Literature with Creative Writing at Lancaster University before earning her masters in International Relations at Leiden University in The Netherlands (Hoi!). She then trained as a journalist through News Associates in Manchester. Jules has previously worked as a mental health blogger, copywriter and freelancer for various publications.

Topics: Film and TV, Game of Thrones, Jon Snow, Science, TV


TUM – Technical University of Munich
  1. TUM – Technical University of Munich

    Who will win the Game of Thrones?